Parsons Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Parsons Corp

PSNNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryInformation Technology Services

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $65.10median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$107based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $41.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 59% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+59%)

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Market Cap $4.4B

Enterprise Value $5.6B

Shares Outstanding 107.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Parsons Corporation is successfully transitioning from a traditional engineering and infrastructure firm into a high-margin, technology-enabled defense and national security provider. Despite near-term top-line headwinds from a large confidential contract, the company's underlying business is exceptionally strong, driven by record total backlog ($9.3B) and funded backlog ($6.6B). The company's unique synergy between Critical Infrastructure and Federal Solutions, combined with high-barrier capabilities in cyber, space, and signals intelligence (bolstered by the Altamira acquisition), positions it to capture secular tailwinds from global defense spending and domestic infrastructure modernization.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$48.00

Mean target$58.55

High · most bullish analyst$72.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$48.00

Prolonged federal budget delays or shifts in U.S. administration priorities disrupt defense procurement. Severe geopolitical escalation in the Middle East halts progress on high-margin giga-projects, while persistent labor shortages in cleared technical roles limit execution capabilities, compressing margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$58.55

Matches the consensus mean

Parsons successfully delivers on its reiterated FY 2026 guidance, supported by its $11B in awarded but unbooked contracts and a robust $54B pipeline. Margins steadily improve toward the 10.5% range in Critical Infrastructure and high-8s/low-9s in Federal Solutions. The company maintains its trailing twelve-month book-to-bill ratio above 1.0x.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$72.00

Accelerated integration of high-margin defense technology and software solutions (e.g., GARDEM, cyber hunt kits) drives rapid EBITDA margin expansion beyond 11%. Rapid ramp-up of Middle East giga-projects and domestic transit projects (like the LA Metro D Line) offsets confidential contract headwinds faster than expected, leading to double-digit organic growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record backlog of $9.3 billion and an additional $11 billion in awarded but unbooked contracts provide high revenue visibility.
Strong secular tailwinds from the $1.5 trillion U.S. defense budget and unprecedented global infrastructure spending.
High-barrier-to-entry business model supported by a highly specialized workforce holding active security clearances.
Proven track record of accretive M&A, including the recent acquisition of Altamira Technologies to expand space and signals intelligence capabilities.

Key Investment Risks

Heavy dependence on government budgets and federal procurement cycles introduces regulatory and timing risks.
Near-term revenue volatility and headwinds from the wind-down or lower volume of a major fixed-price confidential contract.
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East could impact high-margin infrastructure and urban development projects.
Intense competition for highly skilled, cleared technical talent could drive up labor costs and limit project execution speed.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Book-to-bill ratio falling below 1.0x for consecutive quarters, indicating a shrinking pipeline and backlog depletion.
Significant project delays or cancellations in the Middle East segment.
Failure to integrate Altamira Technologies, resulting in goodwill impairment or margin compression.
A sharp rise in voluntary employee attrition, particularly among personnel with high-level security clearances.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.