Parker-Hannifin Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Machinery & Supplies & Components Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $687.87median of 6 methods · middle span $500-$840based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $965.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $121.8B Enterprise Value $128.8B Shares Outstanding 128.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend8 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Parker enters fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: fiscal 2026 organic growth was 6.6%, adjusted segment operating margin reached 27.3%, adjusted EPS increased to $32.31, and backlog reached $12.8 billion. Management guides to further organic growth, margin expansion and adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2027 and targets a 30% adjusted segment margin by fiscal 2031. The offset is execution and financing risk following the $9.25 billion Filtration Group acquisition, funded primarily with $7.75 billion of term borrowings, alongside the pending CIRCOR Aerospace transaction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$680.00 Mean target$1,160.95 High · most bullish analyst$1,358.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $680.0020% Organic growth or adjusted margin falls below the lower end of fiscal 2027 guidance as industrial demand, tariffs, supply constraints or unfavorable mix weaken results. Filtration Group integration takes longer or costs more than anticipated, synergy delivery slips, and acquisition-funded leverage reduces financial flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $1,160.9553% Matches the consensus meanParker performs within its fiscal 2027 guidance ranges, with industrial recovery and aerospace strength supporting growth while acquisition integration and higher financing requirements limit the pace of upside. Filtration Group is accretive for the full fiscal year and synergy realization remains broadly on schedule. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1,358.0027% Parker reaches the upper portions of its fiscal 2027 organic-growth, adjusted-margin and adjusted-EPS guidance; strong aerospace demand and record backlog convert into revenue; and Filtration Group contributes approximately $1.8 billion of fiscal 2027 sales while progressing toward $220 million of pre-tax cost synergies. Sustained execution makes the 30% fiscal 2031 adjusted segment-margin target credible. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |