Park National Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.80 Intrinsic Value $151.13median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $179.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.2B Enterprise Value $2.7B Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Park National Corporation (PRK) has successfully scaled its operations past the critical $10 billion asset threshold, reaching $13.0 billion in total assets following the completion of its merger with First Citizens Bancshares on February 1, 2026. The bank exhibits top-tier profitability metrics, including an adjusted ROAA of 1.83% and an adjusted ROATE of 16.21% for Q1 2026, supported by a high-quality, low-cost deposit base (28% non-interest bearing). However, near-term performance is weighed down by merger-related integration expenses ($15.5 million in Q1 2026) and slight sequential compression in net interest margins. Given its premium valuation relative to regional peers (P/E of ~16.2x vs. peer average of ~11.5x), a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market digests the integration of the Tennessee expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$205.00 Mean target$211.33 High · most bullish analyst$217.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Integration challenges or higher-than-expected deposit competition in the new Tennessee markets compress NIM below 4.40%. Elevated inflation and high interest rates lead to credit deterioration in the commercial real estate portfolio, forcing higher provisions. Merger-related expenses linger, dragging down ROAA below 1.20%. Base CaseCentral scenario The integration of First Citizens Bancshares proceeds smoothly, realizing projected cost synergies and expanding Park's footprint in Tennessee. Net interest margins stabilize around 4.60%-4.70% as deposit costs are disciplined. Loan growth continues at a moderate organic pace of 4-6% annually, and credit quality remains pristine with ACL/loans stable at ~1.12%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |