Paramount Skydance Corp Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryEntertainment Beta (adjusted)1.30 Intrinsic Value $23.66median of 6 methods · middle span $11-$83based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 153% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+153%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.5B Enterprise Value $23.3B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Paramount's standalone operating trajectory has improved, evidenced by 81.6 million Paramount+ subscribers and an increased FY2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook of USD 3.8-3.9 billion. The proposed WBD acquisition could materially increase content, streaming and sports scale and management expects more than USD 6 billion of synergies. However, the transaction remained unclosed on August 31, 2026 because litigation by 12 State Attorneys General was the final stated obstacle. The contemplated 4.3x synergized net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio at closing, execution demands and persistent legacy-media pressures warrant a Hold rather than a more aggressive recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.00 Mean target$9.81 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.0020% The State AG litigation materially delays or prevents closing, or the transaction closes but integration costs, debt service and operational disruption overwhelm expected synergies. A reversal in streaming momentum or a reduction below the raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance would further weaken the case. Base CaseCentral scenario $9.8155% Matches the consensus meanThe WBD acquisition ultimately closes, but litigation, financing and integration complexity defer part of the expected value. Paramount's streaming growth and transformation savings support the business while linear-media pressure and elevated post-closing leverage constrain upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.0025% The State AG litigation is resolved promptly, the WBD transaction closes with limited further delay, Paramount sustains its raised standalone earnings outlook, and the combined company realizes a substantial portion of the announced technology, procurement, real-estate and operating synergies. The larger content library, sports portfolio and combined Paramount+, HBO Max and Pluto ecosystem improve engagement, monetization and competitive positioning. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |