Pan American Silver Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Pan American Silver Corp

PAASNASDAQ

SectorMaterials

IndustrySilver

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value $76.67median of 6 methods · middle span $41-$184based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $44.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 70% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+70%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $18.6B

Enterprise Value $18.1B

Shares Outstanding 381.5M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Pan American offers substantial silver exposure, strong current free-cash-flow generation, an enhanced shareholder-return framework and multiple organic growth projects. These merits are balanced by gold production and cost-execution pressure, weather-related disruption risk, metal-price sensitivity and an indefinite Escobal timeline.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$53.00

Mean target$65.50

High · most bullish analyst$94.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$53.0025%

Gold production misses the 700 thousand ounce floor, Gold Segment AISC exceeds $1,850 per ounce, severe weather or mine-specific constraints disrupt output, and weaker metal prices reduce free cash flow and discretionary repurchases while Escobal remains suspended.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$65.5056%

Matches the consensus mean

Silver production remains within the 25-27 million ounce range, gold production finishes near the low end of guidance, Gold Segment AISC finishes near the high end, and shareholder returns continue alongside disciplined project spending.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$94.0019%

Silver production reaches the upper end of guidance, Juanicipio continues contributing low-cost ounces, gold operations recover in the second half, and strong attributable free cash flow sustains dividends and repurchases while La Colorada Skarn and Timmins advance without material delay.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

H1 2026 attributable silver production reached 12.90 million ounces, and management reiterated annual guidance of 25.0-27.0 million ounces.
The enhanced return framework targets 35%-40% of annual attributable free cash flow through dividends and repurchases, while La Colorada Skarn and Timmins provide organic-growth optionality.

Key Investment Risks

Management expects 2026 gold production at the low end of guidance and Gold Segment AISC at the high end following weaker expected output at Jacobina and El Peñon.
Operations remain sensitive to silver and gold prices, labour and consumables costs, taxes, royalties, foreign exchange rates and severe weather.
Escobal remains suspended with no timeline for completion of the ILO 169 consultation or restart of operations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.