Palo Alto Networks Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySystems Software Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $88.57median of 6 methods · middle span $13-$257based on filings through 30 Apr 2026 Market Price $396.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 78% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-78%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $324.1B Enterprise Value $323.4B Shares Outstanding 764M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Palo Alto Networks enters its FY2026 results with strong reported momentum: fiscal Q3 revenue increased 31%, Next-Generation Security ARR increased 60%, remaining performance obligation increased 36%, and trailing-12-month adjusted free-cash-flow margin reached 38.5%. However, CyberArk and Chronosphere supplied $388 million of Q3 revenue and $1.6 billion of NGS ARR, while acquisition costs, amortization and share-based compensation contributed to a GAAP operating and net loss. The resulting mix of powerful platform expansion and substantial integration risk supports a Hold pending confirmation of organic momentum, FY2026 exit guidance and progress toward the 40% FY2028 adjusted free-cash-flow margin objective. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$203.00 Mean target$347.17 High · most bullish analyst$434.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $203.0020% The bear case assumes results below the lower ends of fiscal Q4 guidance, slower organic NGS ARR growth after separating acquired revenue, and prolonged CyberArk and Chronosphere integration costs. Failure to convert the enlarged platform into durable organic growth and cash-flow leverage would compress investor expectations. Base CaseCentral scenario $347.1758% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes performance near the midpoint of fiscal Q4 guidance, continued but moderating platformization demand, and manageable integration costs while adjusted free-cash-flow margin progresses toward the FY2028 objective. Bull CaseUpside scenario $434.0022% The bull case assumes fiscal Q4 results reach or exceed the upper ends of management's $8.95 billion NGS ARR, $21.0 billion RPO and $3.355 billion revenue guidance; CyberArk and Chronosphere integrations accelerate cross-selling across network, cloud, security operations, identity and observability; and the company remains on course for a 40% adjusted free-cash-flow margin in FY2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |