Palantir Technologies Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)1.37 Intrinsic Value $86.36median of 6 methods · middle span $52-$548based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $190.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 55% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-55%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $456.7B Shares Outstanding 2.6B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Palantir entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: Q2 revenue increased 93% year over year, U.S. commercial revenue increased 149%, and U.S. commercial remaining deal value increased 124%. Management consequently raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.150-$8.158 billion and U.S. commercial revenue guidance to more than $3.424 billion. These results support a durable AI-platform adoption thesis, but contract-value realization, long sales cycles, execution against sharply elevated expectations, and AI, security, geopolitical, and reputational risks remain material. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$191.68 High · most bullish analyst$255.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.0018% Growth decelerates more rapidly than management expects because large contracts convert slowly, options are not exercised, customers use termination provisions, or implementation and sales cycles lengthen. Heightened scrutiny of AI, data security, leadership, or government deployments could also impair demand or execution. Base CaseCentral scenario $191.6858% Matches the consensus meanRevenue growth remains exceptional but moderates from Q2 levels toward management's FY2026 outlook. U.S. commercial revenue meets or modestly exceeds the stated $3.424 billion minimum, while contract timing produces normal quarterly volatility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $255.0024% Palantir sustains growth above its raised FY2026 outlook as U.S. commercial adoption, large-deal activity, and remaining deal value convert into revenue faster than expected. Continued operating leverage and customer demand for controlled, production-grade AI deployments reinforce the company's competitive position. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |