Pagaya Technologies Ltd Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)3.91 Intrinsic Value $25.12median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $17.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 83.4M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Pagaya Technologies operates a unique financial transaction marketplace and asset-backed securities (ABS) infrastructure, rather than a traditional software platform. By using AI to re-evaluate declined loan applications in real time, Pagaya enables lenders to approve more customers without holding credit risk on its own balance sheet. The company has achieved a major operational inflection point, delivering five consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability as of Q1 2026. Despite strong fundamentals, expanding margins, and raised full-year guidance, the stock trades at a significant discount due to market misclassification and concerns over credit cycle sensitivity. This disconnect presents a compelling entry point for investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$28.80 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0020% A severe macroeconomic downturn triggers higher consumer default rates, forcing heavy impairments on Pagaya's retained investment portfolio. Elevated funding costs compress FRLPC margins, and risk-averse lending partners reduce volume, stalling the company's profitability streak and keeping the stock under technical pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.8050% Matches the consensus meanPagaya successfully executes its 2026 guidance, delivering network volume of $11.45B-$13.0B and GAAP net income of $110M-$160M. The company maintains stable FRLPC margins of 4%-5% and continues to diversify its funding through repeat ABS issuances and private credit partnerships, leading to a steady upward re-rating toward consensus analyst targets. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.0030% Rapid onboarding of Tier-1 bank partners and expansion of auto and point-of-sale verticals drive network volume well above guidance. Continued operational leverage and lower credit impairments expand GAAP net income margins, forcing a massive short squeeze (with short interest near 25%) and a fundamental re-rating of the stock toward financial marketplace multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |