PACS Group Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.24 Intrinsic Value $52.10median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$265based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $41.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.5B Enterprise Value $6.6B Shares Outstanding 152.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PACS Group, Inc. represents a compelling growth opportunity in the post-acute healthcare sector. The company's decentralized operating model, combined with a highly disciplined acquisition strategy, has enabled it to consistently outperform industry averages in key metrics such as occupancy and skilled mix. Despite short-term headwinds from regulatory investigations and internal control restatements, PACS's strong cash flow generation, low leverage (0.1x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA), and robust portfolio of mature, ramping, and new facilities position it for sustained long-term expansion. The recent approval of a $250 million share repurchase program further highlights management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value and capital allocation flexibility. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$57.00 Mean target$59.20 High · most bullish analyst$62.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $57.00 Ongoing DOJ and SEC investigations result in substantial financial penalties or restrictive corporate integrity agreements. Remediation of internal control weaknesses is delayed, leading to further financial restatements and a higher cost of capital. Base CaseCentral scenario $59.20 Matches the consensus meanPACS successfully executes its organic growth strategy, maintaining mature facility occupancy above 94% and steadily improving the performance of ramping facilities. The company achieves its raised FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $605 million to $625 million, and regulatory overhangs are gradually resolved. Bull CaseUpside scenario $62.00 Accelerated integration of ramping and new facilities leads to faster-than-expected margin expansion. Regulatory investigations are resolved with minimal financial penalties, restoring investor confidence and driving multiple expansion toward historical peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |