Packaging Corp Of America Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPackaging & Containers Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $189.73median of 6 methods · middle span $167-$243based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $229.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.5B Enterprise Value $24B Shares Outstanding 89M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Packaging Corporation of America entered the second half of 2026 with strong top-line momentum but mixed earnings conversion. Second-quarter net sales increased to $2.5 billion from $2.2 billion, while adjusted diluted EPS was $2.35. Management's $2.91 adjusted-EPS outlook for the third quarter indicates expected sequential improvement. The 20% dividend increase to a $6.00 annualized payout and the planned Wallula cost reduction reinforce the long-term case, but Greif integration, cost inflation, and execution of capacity changes remain material swing factors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$167.00 Mean target$260.50 High · most bullish analyst$312.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $167.0018% Higher sales fail to produce sustained per-share earnings growth because acquisition integration, freight, fiber, maintenance, and mill-transition costs remain elevated. Delays replacing Wallula's reduced capacity or realizing its expected cost improvement would further weaken the earnings trajectory. Base CaseCentral scenario $260.5059% Matches the consensus meanAdjusted EPS improves sequentially toward the company's $2.91 third-quarter outlook, supported by packaging demand, pricing, and acquisition contributions, while integration expenses, freight and fiber costs, and mill-transition work offset part of the benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $312.0023% Packaging demand and pricing remain firm, the acquired Greif containerboard operations integrate successfully, and mill performance improves sufficiently for adjusted EPS to meet or exceed the company's $2.91 third-quarter outlook. Wallula's planned cost reduction and replacement of curtailed capacity at other mills provide additional operating upside. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |