Pacific Biosciences of California Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryLife Sciences Tools & Services Beta (adjusted)1.89 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $2.51Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $780.2M Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 309.7M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PacBio) is navigating a transitional phase marked by flat year-over-year revenue growth and significant instrument sales pressure, particularly from academic funding constraints in the Americas. While the company's consumables segment continues to show strong momentum—achieving record quarterly revenues driven by clinical shipments—near-term performance remains constrained by macroeconomic headwinds and competitive dynamics. The upcoming commercial launch of the SPRQ-Nx chemistry represents a key catalyst that could lower sequencing costs and drive platform adoption, but high cash burn and ongoing operating losses warrant a cautious near-term outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1.50 Mean target$2.46 High · most bullish analyst$3.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.0015% Academic funding constraints persist globally, and competitive pressures from short-read and alternative long-read technologies intensify. The commercial rollout of SPRQ-Nx faces delays or fails to stimulate new instrument demand, leading to further guidance cuts, continued margin compression, and accelerated cash burn. Base CaseCentral scenario $1.5060% PacBio achieves its revised full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $165 million to $175 million, supported by steady consumable growth and gradual stabilization of instrument sales following the SPRQ-Nx launch. Gross margins recover moderately as computing component costs stabilize, but the company continues to record operating losses in the near term. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3.0025% Rapid adoption of the newly launched SPRQ-Nx chemistry drives a significant increase in consumable pull-through and revitalizes Revio and Vega instrument placements. Clinical market expansion accelerates, and academic funding pressures in the Americas ease faster than anticipated, leading to gross margin expansion and a clear path toward profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |