PACCAR Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $99.20median of 6 methods · middle span $74-$151based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $109.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $57.9B Enterprise Value $67.2B Shares Outstanding 527.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PACCAR's second-quarter 2026 results show improving sequential truck activity, record Parts revenue and stable Financial Services earnings, but the investment case remains balanced by cyclical truck demand, lower first-half deliveries than the prior year and rising Financial Services credit provisions. The durable Parts franchise and strong liquidity support resilience, while management's market ranges indicate that a full truck-cycle recovery is not yet assured. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$110.47 Mean target$141.03 High · most bullish analyst$164.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $110.4719% Freight demand weakens, North American Class 8 sales fall below management's range, and customers defer fleet replacement. Lower truck absorption combines with declining Parts activity and higher Financial Services loss provisions, reducing the stabilizing benefit of PACCAR's aftermarket and financing operations. Base CaseCentral scenario $141.0357% Matches the consensus meanTruck markets remain within management's stated 2026 ranges, with improving North American build rates offset by still-cyclical demand. Record Parts revenue and steady Financial Services profitability cushion truck volatility, while investment in powertrains, connected services and manufacturing supports the next cycle. Bull CaseUpside scenario $164.0024% Freight-rate improvement and fleet replacement lift North American demand toward the upper end of PACCAR's 2026 market range, European demand remains resilient, and higher truck utilization extends Parts growth. Operating leverage, stable Financial Services margins and disciplined investment then support earnings above the base case. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |