Oxford Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $25.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $380.1M Enterprise Value $444.4M Shares Outstanding 14.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Oxford Industries owns a strong portfolio of emotionally resonant lifestyle brands, led by Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer. While Tommy Bahama continues to show resilience and positive momentum (particularly in food & beverage and e-commerce), the company is facing significant near-term headwinds. These include severe tariff pressures under the IEEPA (projected at $50 million for fiscal 2026) and double-digit sales declines at Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was. Although the company maintains a solid balance sheet and a high dividend yield, near-term profitability is expected to remain under pressure, justifying a Hold recommendation until brand stabilization and tariff relief become clearer. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$40.00 High · most bullish analyst$44.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Tariff headwinds exceed expectations, and promotional environments further compress gross margins at Lilly Pulitzer. Elevated corporate expenses and high capital expenditures on the Lyons distribution center prevent debt paydown, leading to earnings falling below the guided $2.10 adjusted EPS. Base CaseCentral scenario Tommy Bahama's steady performance and modest gross margin expansion offset the ongoing declines in Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was. The company successfully navigates the $50 million tariff headwind through partial refunds and cost management, achieving the lower-to-mid end of its fiscal 2026 guidance. Bull CaseUpside scenario Oxford Industries possesses a premium brand portfolio (including Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer) that commands a high gross margin of over 62% compared to the industry median of ~51%. This strong pricing power enables margin recovery once elevated capital expenditures normalize. Additionally, the stock trades at a depressed valuation multiple (P/E of 10.9x vs. industry 13.5x and P/S of 0.40x vs. 0.65x median), pricing in permanent margin decline, which leaves significant room for multiple expansion and stock repricing upon any stabilization or operational recovery. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |