Owens Corning Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.22 Intrinsic Value $125.26median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $117.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.3B Enterprise Value $13.2B Shares Outstanding 78.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Owens Corning combines market-leading roofing and insulation positions, a more focused building-products portfolio and substantial company-specific cost opportunities with material exposure to weak residential construction and discretionary remodeling. Q2 2026 continuing-operations sales were approximately flat, but adjusted EBITDA margin remained 24%. Management expects Q3 revenue of $2.6-$2.7 billion and a 20%-22% adjusted EBITDA margin, below Q2 as distributor stocking normalizes and conflict-related inflation adds approximately $40 million of cost. At the official August 31, 2026 quote of $140.14, the balance of resilient margins, capital returns and long-term targets against near-term cyclical and Doors-execution risks supports a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$140.00 Mean target$175.57 High · most bullish analyst$198.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $140.0022% Residential repair, remodeling and new construction weaken further, distributor purchases fall below management's expectations, and inflation erodes pricing benefits. Doors remains near a low-double-digit margin despite restructuring, reviving concerns raised by the 2025 impairment and delaying achievement of the enterprise's 2028 objectives. Base CaseCentral scenario $175.5758% Matches the consensus meanDemand remains subdued through the near term but does not deteriorate materially beyond management's Q3 assumptions. Roofing and Insulation preserve strong margins, Doors improves gradually, and restructuring and synergy benefits offset part of the inflation and volume pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $198.0020% A housing and remodeling recovery combines with sustained Roofing pricing, improving European demand and successful execution of the Doors cost program. Doors moves decisively toward its 18% medium-term margin objective, while the enterprise remains on course for $12.5 billion of 2028 revenue, a mid-20% adjusted EBITDA margin and $5.5 billion of cumulative 2025-2028 free cash flow. Continued repurchases amplify per-share gains. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |