Ovintiv Inc Dossier
|
SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $61.32median of 6 methods · middle span $42-$184based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $59.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.6B Enterprise Value $19.6B Shares Outstanding 272.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ovintiv enters the second half of 2026 with constructive operating momentum: second-quarter production exceeded the prior guidance range, full-year production guidance was raised without increasing capital guidance, and announced organic and acquired inventory additions reached approximately 500 net 10,000-foot-equivalent locations. The portfolio transformation has increased exposure to the Permian and Montney, while the NuVista acquisition offers adjacent acreage and potential operating synergies. The stance remains Hold because commodity-price, basis-differential, integration. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$55.00 Mean target$73.09 High · most bullish analyst$85.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $55.0020% Total production falls below 630 MBOE/d, capital exceeds $2.35 billion, or the announced inventory additions and NuVista synergies fail to materialize. Lower commodity prices, adverse basis differentials, cost inflation, or integration problems would further weaken the operating outcome. Base CaseCentral scenario $73.0955% Matches the consensus meanOvintiv delivers within its 630-645 MBOE/d total-production and 210-212 Mbbls/d oil-and-condensate guidance ranges while maintaining capital investment within $2.25-$2.35 billion. Inventory transactions largely close as planned and integration progresses without a material operational disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $85.0025% Production reaches or exceeds the upper end of the 630-645 MBOE/d range while capital remains at or below the $2.35 billion upper bound. The remaining inventory transactions close, the approximately 500 announced location additions support durable drilling depth, and NuVista integration realizes the expected operational synergies. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |