Outfront Media Inc Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Specialty Beta (adjusted)1.33 Intrinsic Value $17.02median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $28.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.9B Enterprise Value $7.4B Shares Outstanding 179.7M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary OUTFRONT Media Inc. is demonstrating robust operational momentum, driven by the aggressive digitization of its high-value billboard portfolio and a strong recovery in transit advertising. The company's strategic focus on premium, supply-constrained urban markets (such as New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco) provides a durable competitive moat. Following its upgrade by S&P Global Ratings to 'BB-' in May 2026, reflecting improved leverage metrics, and a substantial Q1 2026 earnings beat, OUTFRONT is well-positioned to deliver attractive total returns through its high dividend yield and capital appreciation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$38.00 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $36.00 A macroeconomic slowdown severely curtails national advertising budgets, leading to lower occupancy and pricing pressure. High leverage and elevated capital expenditures for transit buildouts constrain free cash flow, forcing a reduction in the dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $38.00 Matches the consensus meanSteady digital billboard conversions continue to outpace GDP growth, supporting mid-single-digit revenue growth. Transit revenues grow moderately, and the company successfully manages its debt maturities, maintaining its quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.00 Accelerated conversion of static billboards to digital formats drives higher yields and programmatic ad revenue. Transit advertising margins expand rapidly due to fixed-cost leverage on municipal contracts like the NYC MTA, while net leverage falls below 4.5x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |