Otter Tail Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryConglomerates Beta (adjusted)0.62 Intrinsic Value $73.98median of 5 methods · middle span $54-$75based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $88.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.7B Enterprise Value $4.5B Shares Outstanding 42.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Otter Tail Corporation presents a unique 'balanced stool' investment profile, combining a highly stable, regulated electric utility foundation with cyclical, high-return manufacturing and plastics platforms. The regulated utility segment provides predictable cash flows and is executing a robust $1.9 billion five-year capital plan targeting a 10% rate base CAGR through 2030. This utility strength allows the company to fund its capital requirements without issuing external equity. However, the highly profitable plastics segment (PVC pipe manufacturing) is experiencing cyclical headwinds as PVC prices normalize from post-pandemic peaks. Additionally, while the company has reached comprehensive agreements totaling over $103 million to settle major classes in the industry-wide PVC pipe antitrust litigation, these cash outflows and near-term earnings normalization justify a Hold recommendation at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$86.00 Mean target$90.50 High · most bullish analyst$95.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0015% Severe margin compression in the plastics segment occurs due to a sharp drop in PVC pipe prices coupled with rising resin costs. Regulatory delays or unfavorable ROE determinations in pending rate reviews restrict utility cost recovery, and unexpected delays in major transmission or renewable generation projects increase capital costs. Base CaseCentral scenario $90.5060% Matches the consensus meanThe regulated utility executes its capital plan smoothly, achieving its targeted rate base expansion. Plastics segment earnings continue to normalize within management's guided expectations as lower input resin costs partially offset declining PVC pipe prices. The antitrust litigation settlements are finalized and funded using existing cash reserves without disrupting the company's strong liquidity position or credit profile. Bull CaseUpside scenario $95.0025% A rapid stabilization of PVC pipe prices combined with stronger-than-expected volume demand from municipal infrastructure projects drives plastics segment margins above expectations. Simultaneously, timely regulatory approvals and constructive rate case outcomes in Minnesota and the Dakotas accelerate rate base growth, while the manufacturing platform benefits from a swift rebound in OEM demand. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |