Otis Worldwide Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Machinery & Supplies & Components Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $90.49median of 5 methods · middle span $88-$99based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $64.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $24.5B Enterprise Value $32B Shares Outstanding 384M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Otis has strong Service momentum and unusually robust modernization demand, supported by 9% second-quarter organic Service growth and 26% constant-currency modernization backlog growth. The counterweight is weak New Equipment demand in China and Asia Pacific and material margin compression: adjusted operating margin declined to 15.2%, while New Equipment margin fell to 3.1%. The balanced evidence supports a Hold pending proof that Service pricing and productivity can convert growth into recovering margins. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$88.83 High · most bullish analyst$105.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0020% New Equipment weakness broadens while Service growth fails to offset margin pressure. The bear evidence includes a 5% constant-currency decline in New Equipment orders, a high-teens China New Equipment sales decline, a greater-than-20% Asia Pacific order decline, and a 170-basis-point contraction in Service margin. Base CaseCentral scenario $88.8357% Matches the consensus meanService growth and modernization backlog support consolidated growth, but margin recovery is gradual because of labor costs, strategic Service investments and weak New Equipment profitability. Otis broadly delivers its revised 2026 outlook of $15.1-$15.3 billion in sales, $4.01-$4.05 adjusted EPS and $1.50-$1.55 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $105.0023% Service investments, pricing initiatives and digital operating improvements produce stronger conversion while modernization demand remains elevated. Sustained Service organic growth near the second-quarter 9% rate, combined with 24% organic modernization sales growth and a 26% constant-currency backlog increase, would create upside to the current earnings trajectory. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |