OSI Systems Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronic Components Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $177.23median of 6 methods · middle span $145-$277based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $196.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.1B Enterprise Value $3.8B Shares Outstanding 17.3M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary OSI Systems (OSIS) is well-positioned to capitalize on robust global security upgrades and border protection initiatives, supported by a record $1.9 billion backlog that provides strong revenue visibility. While the transition of the Mexico security contract from product sales to service revenues has created near-term top-line headwinds, the underlying ex-Mexico Security business is growing rapidly (+25% y/y in Q3 2026). This shift towards a higher-margin services mix, combined with vertical integration in its Optoelectronics division, is expected to drive long-term margin expansion and steady earnings growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$270.00 Mean target$298.14 High · most bullish analyst$320.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $270.00 Extended government procurement delays, budget constraints at the Department of Homeland Security, or prolonged geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East disrupt the timing of cargo system installations, leading to backlog stagnation and margin compression due to unfavorable product mix. Base CaseCentral scenario $298.14 Matches the consensus meanOSI Systems successfully executes on its $1.9 billion backlog, meeting its reiterated fiscal 2026 guidance of $1.825B to $1.867B in revenue and $10.30 to $10.55 in non-GAAP EPS. Steady growth in the Security and Optoelectronics divisions offsets moderate pricing pressure in the Spacelabs healthcare segment. Bull CaseUpside scenario $320.00 Accelerated deployment of cargo and vehicle inspection systems globally, combined with rapid expansion of high-margin turnkey service contracts, drives operating margins above historical averages. The Mexico contract headwind rolls off faster than expected, and the Optoelectronics division secures major new defense sub-assembly awards. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |