Oshkosh Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Oshkosh Corp

OSKNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.17

Intrinsic Value $165.75median of 6 methods · middle span $106-$322based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $130.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.2B

Enterprise Value $9.1B

Shares Outstanding 62.8M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Oshkosh enters the second half of 2026 with strong demand visibility, including $14.75 billion of backlog and $1.5 billion of second-quarter Access orders, while NGDV production is supporting Transport growth. The offset is execution and margin risk: management reduced adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $11.00 because fire-truck throughput is improving more gradually than expected, and second-quarter adjusted margins declined in both Access and Vocational. The resulting balance supports a Hold rather than a directional Buy or Sell.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$138.00

Mean target$167.32

High · most bullish analyst$197.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$138.0021%

Fire-truck throughput remains constrained, Access price-cost and mix pressures persist, and cyclical or government-related demand weakens. A renewed guidance reduction or a material backlog decline would indicate that volume growth is not translating into the expected earnings recovery.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$167.3256%

Matches the consensus mean

Oshkosh broadly delivers its updated FY2026 outlook of approximately $11.2 billion in sales and $11.00 of adjusted diluted EPS. Access demand and NGDV growth offset a gradual, rather than rapid, fire-truck manufacturing recovery.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$197.0023%

Access demand remains robust, fire-truck material-flow changes accelerate throughput, and the NGDV ramp produces better volume absorption. These developments would permit stronger conversion of the existing backlog and reduce the margin pressure evident in the first half.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Demand visibility remains substantial: June 2026 consolidated backlog was $14.75 billion versus $14.23 billion a year earlier, while second-quarter Access orders were $1.5 billion.
The NGDV production ramp is creating a meaningful growth offset: second-quarter delivery-vehicle sales rose to $261.6 million from $107.1 million, helping Transport sales increase 11.9%.

Key Investment Risks

Management reduced adjusted EPS guidance by approximately $0.50 to $11.00 because fire-truck throughput improvement was expected to be more gradual than previously planned.
Second-quarter adjusted operating margins compressed to 11.3% in Access from 14.8% and to 13.5% in Vocational from 16.3%, reflecting mix, price-cost and manufacturing-overhead pressures.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.