Oscar Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealthcare Plans Beta (adjusted)1.92 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $29.90Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.2B Enterprise Value $5.6B Shares Outstanding 323.4M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Oscar entered the second half of 2026 with a strong operating inflection: second-quarter effectuated membership reached 2,963,002, medical loss ratio was 79.2%, SG&A expense ratio was 14.2%, and earnings from operations were $388.6 million. Management raised full-year operating-income guidance to $500 million-$700 million and improved its MLR and SG&A guidance ranges. The evidence supports improving execution and scale, but $164 million of favorable prior-period reserve development benefited the quarter, while subsidy, program-integrity, morbidity, utilization and risk-adjustment uncertainty remain material. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$30.40 High · most bullish analyst$39.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.0019% The bear case arises if full-year MLR exceeds 82.5% or earnings from operations fall below $500 million. Potential causes include adverse morbidity or utilization, unfavorable risk-adjustment outcomes, changes associated with enhanced premium-tax-credit expiration or 2027 program-integrity rules, and weaker-than-expected retention. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.4056% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Oscar delivers within its updated FY2026 guidance: revenue of $18.7 billion-$19.0 billion, MLR of 81.5%-82.5%, SG&A ratio of 15.6%-16.1%, and earnings from operations of $500 million-$700 million. Membership scale and first-half profitability support this outcome, while normal second-half seasonality and the nonrecurring reserve-development benefit limit extrapolation from Q2. Bull CaseUpside scenario $39.0025% The bull case requires full-year MLR at or below 81.5%, SG&A ratio at or below 15.6%, and earnings from operations near the $700 million upper end of guidance. Q2's 79.2% MLR, 14.2% SG&A ratio and $388.6 million of operating earnings demonstrate that this outcome is operationally possible, although the quarter benefited from favorable prior-period reserve development. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |