Ormat Technologies Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ormat Technologies Inc

ORANYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Renewable

Beta (adjusted)0.93

Intrinsic Value $77.57median of 5 methods · middle span $54-$111based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $89.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $5.5B

Enterprise Value $7.7B

Shares Outstanding 63M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ormat Technologies is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the surging demand for reliable, 24/7 carbon-free baseload electricity driven by AI and data center expansions. As the world's only vertically integrated geothermal leader, Ormat's core geothermal assets solve the intermittency gap of wind and solar. The company is successfully executing a multi-year expansion strategy, supported by strong growth in its Energy Storage and Product segments, attractive long-term PPA pricing (such as its 150MW portfolio PPA with Google), and the commercialization of next-generation Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) via its newly launched Ormega100 platform.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$112.00

Mean target$132.83

High · most bullish analyst$157.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$115.00

Persistent operational issues, reservoir decline, or asset impairments weigh heavily on Electricity segment margins. High capital expenditure requirements ($587 million remaining for 2026) combined with elevated leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA of 4.63x) increase refinancing risks in a high-interest-rate environment, leading to project delays.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$132.83

Matches the consensus mean

Ormat steadily expands its generating portfolio to reach its 2028 capacity targets while maintaining stable margins in its Electricity segment. The Energy Storage segment continues its robust growth trajectory, and the company successfully integrates its Enel Green Power asset acquisitions. Revenues and Adjusted EBITDA meet the reiterated FY 2026 guidance.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$152.00

Accelerated commercialization of EGS through the Ormega100 platform and strategic partnerships with SLB and Sage Geosystems. Stronger-than-expected merchant pricing in key markets like PJM, ERCOT, and CAISO, combined with rapid execution of the 2.6 GW to 2.8 GW capacity target by 2028, drives significant upward revisions to earnings guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Uniquely positioned as a vertically integrated geothermal leader providing 24/7 baseload clean energy, which commands a premium over intermittent renewables.
Strong secular tailwinds from AI and data center power demand, evidenced by major long-term PPAs signed with Google and Switch.
Robust growth in the Energy Storage segment, which more than doubled revenues year-over-year in 2025.
Technological leadership in next-generation geothermal solutions with the launch of the Ormega100 100 MW EGS-ready design.

Key Investment Risks

High capital intensity and execution risks associated with an ambitious 36% capacity expansion program.
Margin pressure in the Electricity segment due to cost inflation and lower US merchant prices.
Elevated leverage and debt exposure, with a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.63x (TTM) as of Q1 2026.
Risk of asset impairments and operational challenges such as declining well performance or reservoir sustainability.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Significant delays or cost overruns in EGS pilot projects or the Ormega100 commercial rollout.
A material downward revision of the FY 2026 revenue guidance ($1,110 million to $1,160 million) or Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($615 million to $645 million).
Failure to secure attractive PPA pricing for newly added geothermal or storage capacity, leading to prolonged margin compression.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.