Orix Corp ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Orix Corp ADR

IXTokyo Stock Exchange

SectorFinancials

IndustryDiversified Financial Services

Beta (adjusted)0.93

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $37.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $38.9B

Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Mar 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ORIX combines strong underlying first-quarter earnings, substantial capital returns and explicit FY2028 targets for higher ROE and AUM. The investment case is nevertheless balanced by the unusually large Kioxia-related contribution to reported earnings.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$41.38

Mean target$41.38

High · most bullish analyst$41.38

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$41.3824%

Kioxia-related valuation effects reverse or obscure weaker recurring performance, while slower capital recycling and asset-management growth cause ORIX to miss its FY2028 ROE and AUM targets. Credit, market, interest-rate and foreign-exchange exposures across the portfolio compound the earnings pressure.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$41.3855%

Matches the consensus mean

Adjusted earnings remain sound and shareholder distributions provide support, but reported FY2027 profit is materially influenced by Kioxia-related gains and progress toward the FY2028 targets remains execution-dependent.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$41.3821%

ORIX achieves its FY2028 targets of at least 11% ROE and JPY 100 trillion of AUM as third-party capital and recurring fee income reduce capital intensity. Continued adjusted-profit growth, disciplined capital recycling, the authorized buyback and the dividend framework improve per-share outcomes.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

FY2027 first-quarter net income reached JPY 280.8 billion, while adjusted net income excluding Kioxia-related effects was JPY 159.1 billion.
Management targets at least 11% ROE and JPY 100 trillion of AUM by FY2028.3, supported by greater use of third-party capital and fee income.
Capital returns include a share-repurchase authorization of up to JPY 250 billion and an FY2027 dividend set at the higher of 39% of adjusted EPS or JPY 156.10 per ordinary share.

Key Investment Risks

A substantial portion of FY2027 first-quarter reported profit arose from Kioxia-related gains, increasing earnings-quality and valuation-volatility risk.
The FY2028 ROE and AUM goals require successful portfolio rotation, asset-management expansion and disciplined execution across a complex group.
ORIX remains exposed to credit deterioration, market-price movements, interest rates, foreign exchange, liquidity and regulatory changes across its financing, investment and operating activities.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.