Orion Properties Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryOffice REITs Beta (adjusted)1.38 Intrinsic Value $3.85median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $2.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 58% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+58%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $139.2M Enterprise Value $558.9M Shares Outstanding 57.6M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Orion Properties Inc. (NYSE: ONL) is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, shifting its portfolio concentration away from traditional Class B suburban office properties toward Dedicated Use Assets (DUAs) such as government, medical, and R&D facilities. While the company has made notable progress in leasing activity, asset dispositions, and extending key debt maturities, it continues to face structural headwinds in the office sector, elevated capital expenditure requirements, and negative funds available for distribution. Furthermore, the ongoing strategic alternatives review process introduces a high level of speculative uncertainty, making a Hold recommendation appropriate as the market awaits a definitive outcome. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.00 Mean target$3.00 High · most bullish analyst$3.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.9020% The strategic review concludes without a transaction, and standalone refinancing options become increasingly expensive or restrictive. Elevated tenant rollover, high leasing concessions, and capital expenditure requirements continue to pressure cash flows, leading to a potential dividend suspension or further asset impairments. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.0050% Matches the consensus meanThe company continues its gradual portfolio repositioning amid persistent office market headwinds. Occupancy stabilizes, and the company operates within its affirmed 2026 Core FFO guidance of $0.69 to $0.76 per diluted share. Standalone refinancing risks remain managed but limit aggressive expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3.5030% The strategic alternatives review results in a highly favorable acquisition or merger at a premium. Standalone execution accelerates as the pivot to high-quality Dedicated Use Assets (DUAs) drives occupancy and rental rate growth, while aggressive non-core asset sales successfully reduce leverage and save substantial carrying costs. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |