Orion Group Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Orion Group Holdings Inc

ORNNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConstruction & Engineering

Beta (adjusted)1.27

Intrinsic Value $7.02median of 6 methods · middle span $6-$13based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $9.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $372.2M

Enterprise Value $438.1M

Shares Outstanding 40.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Orion Group Holdings is undergoing a successful operational turnaround under its new management team (appointed in 2022). By shifting focus toward higher-margin specialty marine and concrete projects (Project Orion) and leveraging massive tailwinds from federal infrastructure spending (IIJA, USACE, and Navy Pacific Deterrence Initiative), the company is driving significant revenue growth and margin expansion. The recent acquisition of J.E. McAmis further strengthens its specialized marine capabilities, positioning Orion to capture a substantial portion of its $24 billion pipeline.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$16.40

Mean target$17.73

High · most bullish analyst$20.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$14.0015%

Project execution delays, labor shortages, or integration friction with J.E. McAmis compress margins, while a slowdown in federal funding disbursements limits backlog growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$17.0060%

Orion successfully executes on its reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance, delivering revenue between $900 million and $950 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $54 million and $58 million. Steady backlog conversion and stable margins support the consensus valuation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$19.0025%

Accelerated execution of the $24 billion project pipeline, particularly in high-margin marine civil works and AI-driven data center concrete projects, leads to revenue exceeding the high end of guidance and EBITDA margins expanding beyond historical averages.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong tailwinds from the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and military spending.
Robust and growing contract backlog exceeding $950 million, providing high revenue visibility.
Successful turnaround strategy focusing on disciplined bidding and higher-margin specialty scopes.
Strategic expansion into the Pacific Northwest via the J.E. McAmis acquisition.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to federal budget cycles and delays in public sector project awards.
Execution risks on fixed-price contracts, which can be impacted by material inflation or labor shortages.
Integration risks associated with the J.E. McAmis acquisition.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material decline in quarterly contract backlog below $800 million.
Significant project write-downs or negative margin adjustments on major marine contracts.
Failure to meet the lower bound of FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($54 million).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.