Origin Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $52.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 31.2M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by its strategic 'Optimize Origin' initiative, which is successfully enhancing profitability and capital efficiency. Despite minor sequential net interest margin compression in 1Q26, the bank's core profitability remains highly resilient, supported by record net interest income and robust loan and deposit growth. Management's proactive capital management, highlighted by a 67% increase in the quarterly dividend and active share repurchases, underscores strong balance sheet health and alignment with shareholder interests. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.00 Mean target$58.60 High · most bullish analyst$62.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $56.0015% Persistent inflation delays Federal Reserve rate cuts, prolonging deposit pricing pressure and compressing NIM below 3.60%. Softening property valuations lead to a material deterioration in commercial real estate and construction loan portfolios, driving nonperforming assets above 1.50% and requiring elevated provisioning. Base CaseCentral scenario $58.6060% Matches the consensus meanOrigin successfully achieves its near-term ROAA run rate target of 1.15% by 4Q26. NIM-FTE stabilizes within the guided range of 3.7% to 3.8% as public funds deposits normalize. Loan and deposit growth continues at a mid-to-high single-digit pace, supported by strong relationship banking, while credit metrics remain controlled. Bull CaseUpside scenario $62.0025% The 'Optimize Origin' initiative accelerates operating leverage, driving the ROAA run rate well above the 1.15% target by 4Q26. Net interest margin expands beyond expectations to 3.85% due to rapid stabilization of deposit costs and strong C&I loan demand in high-growth Texas and Southeast markets. Credit quality remains pristine with classified assets reversing downward. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |