Orasure Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Supplies Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $3.23median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $3.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $267.6M Enterprise Value $107M Shares Outstanding 68.1M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary OraSure Technologies is navigating a transitional phase as it pivots away from pandemic-era COVID-19 testing revenues toward its core diagnostics and sample management solutions. While the company maintains a robust balance sheet with $177 million in cash and zero debt, it continues to generate significant operating losses ($23.3 million in Q1 2026). Near-term performance is highly dependent on upcoming product launches, specifically its rapid molecular self-test for chlamydia/gonorrhea and the Colli-Pee at-home urine collection device. Given the current valuation discount and execution risks, a Hold recommendation is warranted until margin stabilization and clear revenue ramp-up from new products are demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.00 Mean target$5.00 High · most bullish analyst$6.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.0020% Regulatory delays push the launch of the molecular STI self-test into 2027, or commercial adoption is weaker than expected due to competitive pressures. Operating losses widen further, eroding the company's cash reserves and leading to a downward re-rating of the stock. Base CaseCentral scenario $4.7550% The company launches its new STI products in H2 2026 with a gradual revenue ramp-up. Gross margins continue to improve slowly due to manufacturing insourcing, but ongoing R&D and SG&A investments keep the company in a net loss position through 2026. The stock trades in line with historical multiples, supported by its strong cash cushion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.0030% Successful mid-2026 FDA clearances and rapid commercial adoption of the molecular STI self-test and Colli-Pee device drive high-margin revenue growth in H2 2026. Operational efficiencies from insourcing production to Pennsylvania facilities accelerate gross margin expansion, leading to a faster-than-expected path to profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |