Oracle Corporation Dossier - Source-backed chat

Oracle Corporation

ORCLNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.49

Intrinsic Value $205.73median of 6 methods · middle span $154-$251based on filings through 31 Aug 2026

Market Price $138.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 49% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $418.6B

Enterprise Value $512.3B

Shares Outstanding 3B diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date10 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Oracle has entered a substantially faster growth phase as AI infrastructure demand expands OCI revenue and contracted backlog. FY2026 cloud revenue grew 39%, Q4 cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%, and remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion. The offset is an unusually capital-intensive buildout: FY2026 free cash flow was negative, Oracle expects additional debt and equity financing in FY2027, and execution depends on datacenter capacity, GPUs, customer contract conversion, and sustained AI demand.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets41 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$110.00

Mean target$246.43

High · most bullish analyst$400.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$110.0025%

Datacenter construction, power availability, GPU procurement, or customer execution delays slow backlog conversion; total-cloud growth falls below Oracle's Q1 FY2027 guidance; and the planned financing produces greater leverage or dilution before infrastructure investment generates sufficient cash returns. Continued contraction in software revenue could further reduce the stabilizing contribution from the legacy business.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$246.4355%

Matches the consensus mean

Oracle delivers strong cloud-led growth and broadly achieves its $90 billion FY2027 revenue objective, but the share outcome remains constrained by heavy infrastructure spending, debt and equity issuance, and uncertainty over the timing and economics of converting long-duration AI contracts.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$400.0020%

Oracle converts its $638 billion backlog on schedule, sustains total-cloud growth at or above the 58% lower bound of Q1 FY2027 guidance, reaches or exceeds $90 billion of FY2027 revenue, and funds capacity without materially disrupting its investment-grade objective. OCI scale, multicloud database adoption, and AI-enabled applications then reinforce growth beyond the initial infrastructure cycle.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion at FY2026 year-end, increasing $85 billion sequentially and providing substantial contracted revenue visibility.
FY2026 cloud revenue increased 39% to $34.0 billion, including 77% growth in cloud infrastructure revenue to $18.1 billion.
Oracle confirmed $90 billion of FY2027 revenue guidance, raised FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $8.05, and guided Q1 FY2027 total-cloud growth to 58%-64% in USD.

Key Investment Risks

FY2026 free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion as capital expenditures reached $55.663 billion, demonstrating the near-term cash intensity of OCI expansion.
Oracle expects to raise approximately $40 billion through debt and equity financing in FY2027, including its previously announced $20 billion at-the-market equity program, creating leverage and dilution risk.
Q4 software revenue declined 2% and FY2026 software revenue declined 1% as customers migrated toward cloud offerings.
Oracle identifies datacenter capacity, GPU sourcing, customer purchase timing, cybersecurity, regulation, and construction or operational delays as factors that could cause results to differ from expectations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.