Option Care Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value $35.21median of 6 methods · middle span $29-$57based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $22.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 56% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+56%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.4B Enterprise Value $4.4B Shares Outstanding 154.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Option Care Health (OPCH) is the nation's largest independent provider of home and alternate-site infusion services, operating in a sector with strong secular tailwinds. However, the company's Q1 2026 results revealed significant near-term headwinds, particularly within its Chronic Inflammatory Disease (CID) portfolio and Stelara biosimilar competition, which led to a sharp reduction in full-year revenue guidance. While the long-term thesis of a lower-cost, patient-preferred care setting remains intact, the stock is likely to remain range-bound until top-line growth re-accelerates and CID margin pressures stabilize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$28.58 High · most bullish analyst$39.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.00 CID patient retention deteriorates further, and biosimilar competition erodes margins faster than expected, pushing the gross profit impact beyond $55 million. Ongoing shareholder investigations and potential litigation over the sudden guidance revision depress the valuation multiple, while revenue growth turns negative. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.58 Matches the consensus meanOPCH stabilizes its CID portfolio, with the full-year gross profit impact contained at the guided $55 million. Net revenue grows at approximately 1% to 2% for the year, landing within the revised guidance of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion. Operating cash flow meets the target of at least $320 million, and share repurchases provide downside support. Bull CaseUpside scenario $39.00 The shift from hospital-based outpatient settings to home and alternate-site infusion suites accelerates, driven by payer pressure and patient preference. OPCH successfully mitigates Stelara biosimilar headwinds by onboarding new high-margin therapies, achieving the upper end of its FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($505 million) and utilizing its expanded $850 million credit facility for accretive acquisitions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |