Optimum Communications Inc Dossier
|
SectorCommunication Services IndustryCable & Satellite Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $0.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $359.5M Enterprise Value $25.6B Shares Outstanding 381.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Jun 2018 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Optimum Communications, Inc. (formerly Altice USA, Inc.) is facing severe operational and financial distress. The company is highly leveraged with approximately $26.69 billion in total debt against a market capitalization of roughly $505 million, resulting in an extreme leverage profile. Operational performance continues to deteriorate, with Q1 2026 revenues declining 4% year-over-year to $2.07 billion and a massive net loss of $2.88 billion driven by non-cash impairment charges. Management has explicitly highlighted substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern due to upcoming near-term debt maturities and a lack of committed financing. While the mobile segment shows strong growth, it is insufficient to offset the structural declines in residential video and broadband subscriber losses. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$0.50 Mean target$1.19 High · most bullish analyst$2.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.5025% The company fails to achieve a consensual debt restructuring before the wall of maturities in early 2027. Liquidity dries up, forcing a highly dilutive restructuring or a Chapter 11 filing, wiping out common shareholders. Base CaseCentral scenario $1.2560% The company continues to struggle with its massive debt load and declining legacy cable revenues. Broadband subscriber losses persist due to intense competition from fixed wireless and fiber overbuilders. While CapEx is managed tightly within the $1.0B-$1.5B range, free cash flow remains highly pressured, and the stock trades near its distressed valuation multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2.0015% A successful consensual repositioning of the capital structure or a comprehensive debt restructuring deal could push out near-term maturities and reduce interest expenses. Additionally, faster-than-expected fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) expansion and mobile convergence penetration (reaching the target of 1 million mobile lines by 2027) could stabilize average revenue per user (ARPU) and return the company to positive free cash flow. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |