Optical Cable Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Optical Cable Corp

OCCNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunications Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value $4.97median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $17.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 71% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-71%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $153.4M

Enterprise Value $155.7M

Shares Outstanding 9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Oct 2015

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Optical Cable Corporation (OCC) has demonstrated a powerful operational turnaround in the first half of fiscal year 2026, driven by robust demand in enterprise, data center, and severe duty markets. The company's strong manufacturing operating leverage has successfully translated a 26.6% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2026 into a significant gross margin expansion to 34.2% and a return to net profitability ($1.1 million net income vs. a loss of $698,000 in Q2 2025). Backed by an 82% increase in sales order backlog since October 31, 2025, and a strategic collaboration with Lightera (Furukawa Electric Group), OCC is well-positioned to capture high-margin market share in the expanding data center and specialty cabling sectors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$15.0015%

A slowdown in enterprise IT spending or delays in data center buildouts leads to a contraction in the sales backlog. Underutilized manufacturing capacity compresses gross margins back toward 28-30%, returning the company to near-breakeven or net loss territory.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$26.0065%

OCC continues to execute on its enterprise and data center growth strategies, maintaining a gross margin above 33% and sustaining quarterly revenues above $20 million. The backlog remains robust, and the Lightera partnership yields steady cross-selling opportunities, leading to full-year fiscal 2026 profitability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.0025%

OCC accelerates its market share gains in the Tier 2 data center and enterprise Passive Optical LAN segments through the Lightera partnership. Gross margins expand beyond 35% due to strong manufacturing operating leverage, and annual revenues exceed $90 million, driving significant EPS growth and multiple expansion.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational turnaround with Q2 2026 net income of $1.1 million, reversing prior-year losses.
Significant gross margin expansion to 34.2% in Q2 2026 due to powerful manufacturing operating leverage.
Robust backlog growth, up over 82% from fiscal year-end 2025 to $13.3 million as of April 30, 2026.
Strategic collaboration with Lightera (Furukawa Electric Group) expanding product offerings in high-growth data center and enterprise sectors.

Key Investment Risks

Quarterly results and gross margins are highly sensitive to product mix and manufacturing volume fluctuations.
Concentration in non-carrier enterprise and specialty markets makes OCC vulnerable to cyclical IT capital expenditure cycles.
Competition from larger, more diversified players with greater financial resources.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Gross margin falling below 29% for two consecutive quarters.
A sequential decline in the sales order backlog below $9.0 million.
Reversion to sustained net losses in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.