Optex Systems Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $11.67median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$19based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $72.7M Enterprise Value $66.5M Shares Outstanding 7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Last ex-dividend11 Apr 2018 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Optex Systems Holdings Inc (OPXS) is a highly specialized manufacturer of precision optical sighting systems and periscopes for military land vehicles and night vision programs. While the company has demonstrated strong margin expansion (gross margin rising to 35.2% in Q2 2026) due to the completion of legacy loss-making contracts and improved pricing, near-term revenue has been temporarily soft due to federal budget delays. With a robust backlog and a planned CFO transition at the end of 2026, the stock is currently a Hold as the market waits for second-half revenue acceleration to materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.20 Mean target$16.20 High · most bullish analyst$16.20 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Further delays in federal defense appropriations or supply chain bottlenecks restrict production throughput. Increased G&A expenses from the leadership transition, R&D, and CMMC compliance investments continue to compress operating margins, causing full-year revenue to miss the lower-bound guidance of $43M. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully converts its strong funded backlog and recent contract wins (such as the $10.2M ACC-Detroit Arsenal contract and night vision filter orders) into accelerated revenue during the second half of fiscal 2026. Full-year revenue lands within the guided $43M–$45M range, and Adjusted EBITDA meets the $7.5M–$8.5M target. The CFO transition is managed smoothly without operational disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario Optex exceeds its FY 2026 guidance, driven by faster-than-expected conversion of its $36.6M backlog and additional high-margin commercial orders from the newly launched Optex Outdoors line. Gross margins expand past 32% due to operational efficiencies and favorable pricing on new defense programs, leading to Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $9.0 million. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |