Onto Innovation Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Onto Innovation Inc

ONTONYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Equipment & Materials

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value $143.96median of 6 methods · middle span $126-$483based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $314.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 54% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-54%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $19.2B

Enterprise Value $18B

Shares Outstanding 61.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Onto Innovation entered the second half of 2026 with record quarterly revenue, accelerating advanced-node and advanced-packaging demand, backlog above $1 billion, and Q3 guidance implying another sequential increase. Dragonfly G5 adoption and the completed 27% Rigaku investment expand exposure to AI packaging and next-generation process control.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$330.00

Mean target$388.45

High · most bullish analyst$450.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$330.0017%

The bear case assumes semiconductor customer capital spending weakens, backlog conversion slows, or supply-chain, trade, product-ramp, acquisition-integration, or strategic-investment execution issues cause results to fall below Q3 guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$388.4557%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Q3 revenue remains within the company's $380 million to $400 million range, non-GAAP gross margin remains within 57.3% to 57.8%, and backlog supports continued growth into 2027 while the Rigaku relationship develops gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$450.0026%

The bull case assumes strong conversion of backlog above $1 billion, performance toward the high end of Q3 guidance, continued advanced-node and advanced-packaging momentum, and Dragonfly platform growth above the company's stated 2026 expectation. Successful collaboration with Rigaku would broaden Onto's process-control opportunity.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue reached a record $343.1 million, rising 35.3% year over year, while advanced-nodes revenue increased 50% sequentially.
Backlog exceeded $1 billion for the first time, and management indicated that demand trends were expected to extend into 2027.
Dragonfly platforms were expected by the company to grow more than 50% in 2026, while the completed 27% Rigaku investment adds access to advanced X-ray process-control capabilities.

Key Investment Risks

Results remain exposed to semiconductor capital-spending cycles, front-end and back-end market conditions, customer demand, supply-chain availability, tariffs, trade disputes, and export-policy changes.
The approximately $720 million Rigaku investment creates strategic-execution and fair-value exposure, while expected benefits depend on successful collaboration and technology commercialization.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.