Oneok Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $115.23median of 6 methods · middle span $74-$150based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $87.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $54.9B Enterprise Value $86.3B Shares Outstanding 637.4M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ONEOK combines improving operating momentum with a substantially more complex transaction and capital structure. Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased 7%, record NGL throughput supported results and management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to USD 8.2-8.5 billion. The proposed Brazos Midland acquisition should add long-duration, fee-based Permian growth and is expected by management to be immediately accretive. The accompanying USD 9 billion Apollo minority investment also funds USD 5 billion of debt reduction and targets approximately 3.25x pro forma 2027 leverage. These benefits are balanced by closing, integration and synergy risks and by the claim on operating cash flow created by the new minority interest. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$88.00 Mean target$96.38 High · most bullish analyst$108.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $88.0020% Regulatory or closing delays defer Brazos contributions, integration underperforms, synergies fall short and the minority-interest distribution burden limits cash available to common shareholders. Failure to achieve the planned debt reduction or a decline in the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance floor below USD 8.2 billion would reinforce this case. Base CaseCentral scenario $96.3850% Matches the consensus meanThe transactions close substantially as announced, debt reduction is completed and Brazos contributes gradual growth with most announced synergies realized. Existing operations remain within the USD 8.2-8.5 billion 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $108.0030% Brazos and the Apollo investment close on schedule, the USD 5 billion debt reduction is completed, leverage reaches approximately 3.25x and the acquired acreage delivers contracted volume growth. Synergies meet or exceed the approximately USD 80 million included in ONEOK's 2027 estimate, supporting performance near the high end of management's mid- to high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth objective. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |