One Liberty Properties Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryIndustrial REITs Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $20.29median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $481.6M Enterprise Value $985.8M Shares Outstanding 21.1M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary One Liberty Properties (OLP) is successfully executing a strategic transformation from a diversified REIT into a focused industrial logistics platform, with industrial assets now representing 84% of its base rent. While heavy capital recycling (selling retail assets to acquire logistics properties) will create a temporary cap rate trade-down drag that keeps 2026 AFFO flat, OLP is highly attractive for income-focused investors. It offers a robust 7.5% dividend yield backed by a 134-consecutive-quarter payout history and is poised for moderate organic growth starting in 2027 as the portfolio transition nears completion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$26.50 High · most bullish analyst$28.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $21.5010% Elevated interest rates persist longer than expected, raising refinancing costs on upcoming debt maturities and restricting accretive acquisition activity. Tenant credit profiles in the remaining retail portfolio deteriorate, leading to unexpected vacancies and putting pressure on the high dividend payout ratio. Base CaseCentral scenario $26.5060% Matches the consensus meanOLP maintains its high occupancy rate of ~98.8% and continues its methodical rotation out of retail. AFFO per share remains flat in 2026 at approximately $1.92 due to transition headwinds but positions the company for 3-5% growth in 2027. The stock trades steadily, supported by its secure 7.5% dividend yield. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.5030% Accelerated leasing of vacant spaces and stronger-than-expected positive mark-to-market rent resets on upcoming industrial lease expirations drive immediate AFFO expansion. Rapid cap rate compression in the industrial sector boosts OLP's net asset value, leading to multiple expansion toward pure-play industrial peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |