ONE Gas Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

ONE Gas Inc

OGSNYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $69.83median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $71.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.5B

Enterprise Value $7.1B

Shares Outstanding 63.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ONE Gas, Inc. (NYSE: OGS) operates as a highly stable, 100% regulated natural gas utility serving 2.3 million customers across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The company's investment appeal is anchored in its predictable, rate-regulated business model, which supports a long-term average rate base growth target of 7% to 9% per year and an adjusted EPS growth target of 5% to 7% through 2030. However, near-term performance remains highly sensitive to weather variability, as evidenced by unseasonably warm winter conditions in Q1 2026 that led to a revenue and earnings miss. While management's proactive cost-mitigation strategies and constructive regulatory frameworks limit downside risk, elevated operating expenses and high interest rates justify a Hold recommendation at current valuation levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$85.00

Mean target$90.06

High · most bullish analyst$103.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$78.0015%

Persistent inflationary pressures on labor and materials, combined with continued unseasonably warm weather patterns, compress operating margins. Regulatory lag in key jurisdictions delays the recovery of capital expenditures, and higher-for-longer interest rates increase financing costs for the company's $1.3 billion long-term financing program through 2030, dragging adjusted EPS below the guided range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$90.0660%

Matches the consensus mean

ONE Gas successfully executes its $800 million capital investment plan for 2026, focusing on system integrity and customer extensions. Normal weather patterns return in the latter half of the year, and the company achieves its reaffirmed FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.83 to $4.95 (GAAP EPS of $4.65 to $4.77). Dividend growth continues at its historical 1% to 2% annual pace, maintaining its appeal to income-focused investors.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$95.0025%

Accelerated customer additions in high-growth metropolitan areas of Texas and Oklahoma, combined with constructive regulatory outcomes (such as higher approved ROEs and expanded capital recovery mechanisms), drive rate base expansion at the upper end of the 7% to 9% target. Efficient cost-control measures and colder-than-normal winter weather in subsequent quarters fully offset Q1 shortfalls, pushing FY 2026 adjusted EPS toward the high end of the $4.83 to $4.95 guidance range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

100% regulated utility operations providing highly predictable cash flows and low business risk profile.
Strong footprint in constructive regulatory jurisdictions (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas) with established capital recovery mechanisms.
Consistent dividend track record with 12 consecutive years of increases and a stable yield.
Clear long-term growth visibility supported by a $4.3 billion five-year capital investment plan through 2030.

Key Investment Risks

High sensitivity to weather conditions, where warm winters significantly reduce volumetric gas deliveries and revenues.
Exposure to regulatory lag, where delays in rate case approvals postpone the recovery of capital investments.
Rising operating and maintenance expenses driven by labor, material, and compliance cost inflation.
Increased interest expenses impacting the cost of short-term commercial paper and long-term debt financing.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material downward revision of the long-term 5% to 7% EPS CAGR guidance.
Unfavorable regulatory rulings, such as a significant reduction in allowed Return on Equity (ROE) in upcoming rate cases.
Capital expenditure execution delays or cost overruns exceeding budgeted limits.
A severe credit rating downgrade that sharply escalates financing costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.