One and one Green Technologies. Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

One and one Green Technologies. Inc

YDDLNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $79.6M

Enterprise Value $78.6M

Shares Outstanding 52.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date15 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

One & One Green Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: YDDL) is a highly specialized, licensed hazardous waste importer and recycler of non-ferrous metals based in the Philippines. The company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the structural copper deficit and the growing demand for sustainable, low-carbon strategic metals across the Asia-Pacific region. By holding a government-issued license to import and process hazardous waste under the Basel Convention framework, One & One possesses a significant competitive moat. The company's recent financial performance demonstrates strong operational leverage, with FY2025 revenue growing 23% to $65.8 million and net income surging 82% to $11.8 million. With a debt-free balance sheet, upcoming capacity expansions in Metro Manila, and the commissioning of an in-house chemical testing laboratory, One & One is well-positioned for scalable, high-margin growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Tightening environmental regulations or political shifts in the Philippines lead to delays or restrictions on hazardous waste import licenses. Supply chain disruptions or equipment delivery delays push the commercial launch of the Metro Manila smelting line into 2027. Increased public company compliance costs and adverse foreign exchange fluctuations compress net margins, while a slowdown in Chinese industrial demand reduces sales volumes for recycled copper ingots.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully commissions its new Metro Manila smelting production line in H2 2026, expanding its capabilities to recover copper, nickel, gold, and silver from industrial sludge. The in-house chemical testing laboratory delivers vertical quality control, reducing reliance on third-party services and improving downstream export compliance. Revenue grows at a 15-19% CAGR, driven by sustained demand for recycled copper and aluminum alloy products in China and the Philippines. Operating margins remain stable or expand slightly due to disciplined raw material sourcing and processing efficiencies.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

A TGR of 5% would increase the DCF valuation to US$11.9 per share, driven by faster-than-expected scaling of the Metro Manila smelting line and successful entry into the lithium battery recycling market within three years.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Unique regulatory moat as a licensed hazardous waste importer under the Basel Convention in the Philippines.
Strong financial profile with 82% YoY net income growth in FY2025 and a completely debt-free balance sheet.
Vertical integration advantages from the newly completed in-house chemical testing laboratory and advanced exhaust gas recirculation technology.
Favorable macroeconomic tailwinds from the global energy transition, electrification, and structural copper supply deficits.

Key Investment Risks

High regulatory and licensing dependency on the Philippine Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) and Bureau of Customs.
Geographic concentration of revenue, with a significant portion of sales generated from customers in China.
Execution risks associated with the commissioning of new smelting equipment and the planned lithium battery recycling facility.
Potential selling pressure or volatility following the expiration of voluntary lock-up extensions by key shareholders.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Revocation, suspension, or material restriction of the company's hazardous waste import or processing licenses.
A prolonged delay in the commercial production of the Metro Manila smelting line extending past 2026.
A significant decline in global copper and aluminum prices that compresses recycling margins below viable levels.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.