ON Semiconductor Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

ON Semiconductor Corp

ONNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.68

Intrinsic Value $65.24median of 6 methods · middle span $55-$70based on filings through 3 Jul 2026

Market Price $80.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $31.2B

Enterprise Value $32.1B

Shares Outstanding 395.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

onsemi entered the second half of 2026 with improving demand, expanding operating leverage and strong free-cash-flow generation. AI data centers are the principal incremental growth catalyst, while the proposed Synaptics acquisition could broaden the company from power and sensing into connected compute and control. A neutral recommendation is appropriate because the transaction remains subject to approvals and integration risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$85.00

Mean target$108.88

High · most bullish analyst$150.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$85.0025%

AI infrastructure demand slows before broader automotive and industrial markets fully recover, limiting operating leverage. The Synaptics transaction is delayed, fails to close, or produces integration costs and synergies below expectations, weakening the expected earnings-accretion profile.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$108.8856%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue and margins continue recovering from the cyclical trough, supported by AI infrastructure and disciplined operations, but automotive and industrial normalization remains gradual and the pending Synaptics transaction creates execution and dilution uncertainty.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$150.0019%

Demand recovery continues, AI data-center revenue more than doubles during 2026, product mix and manufacturing execution sustain margin expansion, and the Synaptics combination closes and delivers the announced strategic expansion and annual synergies.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 9% year over year to $1.604 billion, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.3%.
Second-quarter free cash flow was $425.4 million, approximately four times the prior-year amount, and free-cash-flow margin expanded to approximately 27%.
Management expects AI data-center revenue to more than double in 2026 and reported expanding participation across the AI power tree.
The proposed Synaptics transaction would add connected-compute capabilities, expand onsemi's estimated 2030 addressable market by $30 billion to $243 billion, and is expected to produce $200 million of annual synergies.

Key Investment Risks

The approximately $7 billion all-stock Synaptics acquisition is subject to target-shareholder and regulatory approvals and is not expected to close until mid-2027.
Synaptics shareholders are expected to own approximately 12% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis, creating material issuance and execution exposure for existing onsemi shareholders.
The acquisition's anticipated EPS accretion, margin profile and annual synergies depend on successful integration and may not be achieved on the announced timetable.
The growth thesis has become increasingly dependent on AI data-center demand meeting management's expectation of more than doubling during 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.