On Holding AG Dossier - Source-backed chat

On Holding AG

ONONNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryFootwear & Accessories

Beta (adjusted)1.73

Intrinsic Value $65.94median of 6 methods · middle span $43-$89based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $30.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 118% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+118%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $10.1B

Shares Outstanding 334.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

On entered the second half of 2026 with strong brand momentum, 21.6% constant-currency quarterly growth, a record 45.7% DTC mix, 65.4% gross margin and 19.8% adjusted EBITDA margin. APAC, apparel and DTC remain powerful expansion vectors, while LightSpray and the 2026-2027 running pipeline support continued premium differentiation. The offset is a deliberate slowdown in wholesale sell-in, exposure to tariffs and the need to protect full-price integrity in a promotional market.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets27 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$19.99

Mean target$45.48

High · most bullish analyst$73.16

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$19.9918%

Wholesale moderation proves to be broader demand weakness rather than disciplined channel management, promotional pressure erodes full-price realization, and tariffs or investment requirements compress margins. New-product adoption and retail productivity fail to offset slower footwear demand, causing constant-currency growth to fall below 20% or adjusted EBITDA margin to fall below 18.5%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$45.4855%

Matches the consensus mean

On delivers low-20% constant-currency growth for 2026, with DTC outperforming intentionally moderated wholesale. Gross margin remains at least 65% and adjusted EBITDA margin stays within 19.5%-20.0%, while innovation and retail expansion sustain premium positioning.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$73.1627%

DTC growth remains substantially ahead of wholesale, APAC and apparel continue scaling rapidly, and the Cloudboom, SURREAL and LightSpray pipeline expands On's addressable market without sacrificing full-price discipline. Gross margin remains near or above the raised 65% objective and operating leverage supports at least the upper end of the 19.5%-20.0% adjusted EBITDA-margin outlook.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 net sales grew 21.6% on a constant-currency basis, while first-half constant-currency growth was 24.0%.
DTC grew 34.3% on a constant-currency basis and reached 45.7% of Q2 sales, supporting a 65.4% gross margin.
APAC and apparel delivered Q2 constant-currency growth of 54.7% and 56.2%, respectively, providing meaningful diversification vectors.
On is commercializing a differentiated innovation pipeline spanning LightSpray, CloudTec Sphere, SURREAL superfoam and products launching through 2027.

Key Investment Risks

Q2 wholesale constant-currency growth of 12.7% materially trailed DTC, and management is deliberately moderating wholesale sell-in to protect brand integrity.
The company absorbed higher U.S. import tariffs in Q2 and excluded prospective tariff refunds from its updated outlook.
Maintaining premium pricing and full-price discipline may become more difficult in promotional consumer markets.
The investment case depends on successful scaling of LightSpray, new running technologies, retail locations and apparel without diluting returns or brand positioning.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.