Omnicell Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Omnicell Inc

OMCLNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Information Services

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $46.23median of 6 methods · middle span $28-$83based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $33.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.5B

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 45.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Omnicell is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities driven by the launch of its next-generation Titan XT automated dispensing system and the cloud-native OmniSphere platform. Q1 2026 results demonstrated strong execution with a 15% year-over-year revenue increase to $310 million, supported by demand for connected devices and disciplined cost management which improved profitability, leading to raised full-year 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS guidance. While health systems are incorporating the new platforms into longer-term capital planning cycles, disciplined cost management and a strong connected device portfolio provide a solid foundation for durable growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$45.00

Mean target$57.86

High · most bullish analyst$70.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Sustained macroeconomic headwinds and hospital budget constraints delay capital expenditure decisions, leading to slower-than-expected Titan XT adoption as health systems incorporate the platform into longer-term capital planning cycles, which could pressure revenue growth and margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Omnicell successfully executes the Titan XT and OmniSphere rollout, capturing a meaningful share of the automated medication management market. Favorable product demand and disciplined cost control sustain profitability, allowing the company to meet or exceed its FY 2026 total revenue guidance of $1.215 billion to $1.255 billion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Long-term growth opportunity with the launch of the next-generation Omnicell Titan XT automated dispensing system and the cloud-native OmniSphere platform.
Sustained demand for connected device offerings and core points of care solutions, driving a 15% year-over-year revenue increase to $310 million in Q1 2026.
Improved profitability driven by disciplined cost management and strong execution across the business.
Growth in technical services, SaaS and Expert Services, and consumables revenues contributing to total revenue expansion.

Key Investment Risks

Macroeconomic headwinds and hospital capital spending constraints delaying procurement cycles.
Exposure to macroeconomic headwinds and hospital capital constraints that may delay capital planning and purchasing decisions.
Execution risks associated with the transition to the cloud-native OmniSphere platform and Titan XT manufacturing ramp-up.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Slower-than-expected customer adoption of Titan XT and OmniSphere, leading to a decline in product bookings or revenue growth.
Resolution of competitor FDA recall issues leading to a sharp decline in competitive conversion rates.
Gross margin compression below 40% due to unexpected supply chain inflation or tariff escalations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.