Omeros Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Omeros Corp

OMERNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)2.04

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $18.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.3B

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 77.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Omeros Corporation has successfully transitioned from a clinical-stage developer to a commercial-stage rare disease company following the FDA approval of YARTEMLEA (narsoplimab-wuug) in December 2025 for transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA). The commercial launch in January 2026 has shown initial traction, generating $9.9 million in net sales in Q1 2026. Furthermore, the company's balance sheet has been dramatically strengthened by a major asset sale and licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for its MASP-3 inhibitor zaltenibart, which provided $240 million upfront. This cash injection allowed Omeros to repay its near-term debt, leaving only $70.8 million of 2029 convertible notes outstanding. While the company remains unprofitable on an adjusted basis, the combination of a first-in-class commercial asset, a validated complement platform, and a robust cash runway makes Omeros an attractive high-upside investment.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$33.00

Mean target$33.00

High · most bullish analyst$33.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.0010%

YARTEMLEA commercial uptake is slower than expected due to high pricing pushback from payers and slow implementation across hospital systems. EMA issues a major delay or complete response letter for the European application. Cash burn accelerates as commercial SG&A expenses rise, and the company is forced to dilute shareholders to fund operations before reaching cash-flow positive status.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$38.0060%

YARTEMLEA experiences steady, moderate adoption in the U.S. transplant centers, with net sales growing sequentially throughout 2026. Inpatient reimbursement is supported by the NTAP program starting in late 2026. EMA approves YARTEMLEA, and the company secures a regional partner for European commercialization. Cash burn is kept under control, and the company progresses toward positive cash flow within 18 months of launch.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$45.0030%

YARTEMLEA achieves rapid market penetration in the U.S. supported by favorable permanent J-code assignment and the expected CMS NTAP approval. EMA grants marketing authorization in mid-2026, unlocking the European market and triggering lucrative ex-U.S. commercial partnerships. Additionally, Novo Nordisk successfully advances zaltenibart, triggering substantial development and commercial milestones from the $2.1 billion deal, while Omeros' earlier-stage pipeline (such as OMS1029 and OMS527) delivers positive clinical readouts.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-in-class FDA-approved therapy for TA-TMA, a high-mortality condition with no other approved treatments.
Strong balance sheet with $135.3 million in cash and short-term investments as of March 31, 2026, and near-term debt cleared.
Validation and non-dilutive funding from the multi-billion dollar Novo Nordisk partnership for zaltenibart.
Favorable regulatory milestones in progress, including a permanent J-code effective July 1, 2026, and proposed CMS NTAP.

Key Investment Risks

Single-product commercial execution risk with YARTEMLEA in a highly specialized orphan market.
Potential payer pushback due to aggressive pricing of YARTEMLEA ($288k to $360k per treatment course).
High GAAP earnings volatility driven by non-cash mark-to-market adjustments on convertible debt derivatives.
Dependence on partner Novo Nordisk for the development and milestone realization of zaltenibart.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A flat or declining sequential sales trajectory for YARTEMLEA in Q2 and Q3 2026.
Rejection or significant delay of YARTEMLEA's marketing authorization by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).
Failure of CMS to finalize the proposed New Technology Add-On Payment (NTAP) in August 2026.
Clinical development setbacks or termination of the zaltenibart program by Novo Nordisk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.