Omega Healthcare Investors Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $32.38median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $45.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.3B Enterprise Value $18.5B Shares Outstanding 321.6M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Omega reported $0.83 of second-quarter adjusted FFO per diluted share, raised FY2026 adjusted-FFO guidance to $3.22-$3.26, improved reported operator EBITDAR coverage after management fees to 1.65x, and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.68. It also reported $2.0 billion of undrawn revolving-credit capacity. These fundamentals support the income case, but the August 28 closing price of $45.99 already discounts substantial operating resilience. Genesis remains in Chapter 11, repayment of $148 million of related loans is assumed for the fourth quarter, and expansion of the operating/RIDEA portfolio adds execution and property-level operating exposure. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$51.94 High · most bullish analyst$61.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.0024% Genesis misses payments or delays expected loan repayment, operator coverage weakens materially, reimbursement or labor pressures intensify, or operating-portfolio expansion underperforms. Under that combination, the shares could trade below their recent 52-week low. Base CaseCentral scenario $51.9456% Matches the consensus meanOmega delivers within its $3.22-$3.26 FY2026 adjusted-FFO guidance, operator coverage remains adequate, Genesis payments continue, and acquisition gains are partly offset by execution and interest-rate sensitivity. Bull CaseUpside scenario $61.0020% Operator coverage remains at or above recent levels, Genesis continues all required payments and completes the expected loan repayment, the acquisition pipeline converts into low-double-digit stabilized yields, and the higher dividend is sustained. A price near the recent 52-week high is plausible under this outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |