Omada Health Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Omada Health Inc

OMDANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Information Services

Beta (adjusted)1.41

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $20.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.2B

Enterprise Value $1B

Shares Outstanding 69.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Omada Health has established a strong position in virtual chronic care, leveraging its 'between-visit' model to manage diabetes, hypertension, and weight health. The company's integration of GLP-1 support tracks and recent partnerships with major PBMs (Cigna, Optum Rx, Eli Lilly) provide a solid growth runway. However, high customer concentration (with top partners representing a significant portion of revenue) and structurally limited pricing power offset these positives, making the stock fairly valued at current levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$22.00

Mean target$28.25

High · most bullish analyst$35.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$22.0015%

Pricing pressure on GLP-1 programs and intense competition in the digital health space limit margin expansion. High customer concentration backfires if a major health plan partner renegotiates terms or reduces volume, leading to slower revenue growth and delayed profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$28.2560%

Matches the consensus mean

Omada delivers on its raised FY2026 guidance of $322-330M in revenue and $14-20M in adjusted EBITDA. The company continues to expand its multi-condition platform, but meaningful revenue contributions from new channel partnerships do not materialize until 2027, keeping the stock range-bound as the market waits for execution proof.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$35.0025%

Operating margins expand toward 15-20% by 2028 driven by continued 20%+ revenue growth and successful scaling of GLP-1 and cardiometabolic solutions. Omada successfully leverages its PBM partnerships to accelerate member acquisition, reaching $700-800M in revenue with $140-160M of adjusted EBITDA by 2030.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong multi-condition platform addressing highly prevalent, high-cost chronic conditions (diabetes, hypertension, MSK, cholesterol).
Strategic partnerships with all three of the nation's leading PBMs, covering over 70% of commercially insured lives.
Robust balance sheet with over $212 million in cash and no debt following the repayment of its term loan in July 2025.

Key Investment Risks

High customer concentration, with top health plan and PBM partners representing a vast majority of revenue.
Structurally limited pricing power, as enterprise customers primarily adopt the platform to reduce their own healthcare costs.
Execution risk surrounding the commercial ramp-up of the GLP-1 prescribing and medication management infrastructure.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material decline in multi-condition attach rates or customer retention below the historical 90% level.
A downward revision of FY2026 revenue guidance below the $322 million threshold.
Termination or unfavorable renegotiation of contracts with Cigna, Optum Rx, or Eli Lilly.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.