Olin Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Olin Corp

OLNNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryChemicals

Beta (adjusted)1.13

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $15.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.8B

Enterprise Value $4.7B

Shares Outstanding 112.5M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend27 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Olin Corporation is undergoing a transformative evolution, highlighted by its June 2026 announcement of an all-stock merger of equals with Huntsman Corporation to form OlinHuntsman. This strategic combination pairs Olin's upstream chlor-alkali and feedstock capabilities with Huntsman's downstream specialty formulations, creating a highly integrated $12.5 billion chemicals leader. While near-term performance has been pressured by cyclical headwinds, elevated leverage, and weather disruptions (such as Winter Storm Fern), Olin's structural cost-reduction initiatives (Beyond250) and the projected $400 million in merger synergies provide a clear path to enhanced cash flow generation and margin expansion through the cycle.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$19.00

Mean target$22.38

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The merger faces prolonged regulatory hurdles or integration delays, postponing synergy capture. Persistent oversupply from Asian competitors continues to depress epoxy margins, while high natural gas and electrical power costs squeeze CAPV profitability. Elevated leverage (above 5.0x) persists, leading to further credit rating pressure.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The merger with Huntsman successfully closes in the first half of 2027, and the combined entity begins capturing the identified $300 million in near-term cost synergies. Caustic soda and EDC pricing stabilize, and the Winchester ammunition segment continues to benefit from robust military and commercial demand. Agile cost management under the Beyond250 program offsets persistent raw material inflation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Transformative merger of equals with Huntsman to create OlinHuntsman, driving deep vertical integration and $400M+ in total synergies.
Strong Winchester ammunition segment providing a resilient, high-margin consumer and defense cash flow stream that balances chemical cyclicity.
Disciplined cost-out execution via the Beyond250 program, targeting over $250M in cumulative savings by 2028.
Transformative merger of equals with Huntsman Corporation to create a leading North American chemicals company with over $12 billion in revenue and more than $400 million in identified cost synergies.

Key Investment Risks

High cyclical sensitivity to commodity chemical prices, particularly caustic soda, chlorine, and ethylene dichloride (EDC).
Elevated leverage, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA rising to 5.1x in Q1 2026 due to seasonal working capital and earnings pressure.
Execution and integration risks associated with combining two large-scale chemical operations across multiple global jurisdictions.
Input cost inflation, particularly for copper and brass in the Winchester segment, and natural gas and electricity in chemical production.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to obtain regulatory or shareholder approvals for the Huntsman merger, leading to transaction termination.
Net leverage remaining above 5.0x by the end of 2026, indicating an inability to generate sufficient free cash flow to deleverage.
A severe global macroeconomic downturn that sharply curtails construction and automotive demand, crushing chemical volumes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.