Old Second Bancorporation Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $15.91median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 56.6M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) is a premier community bank franchise in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin MSA that has successfully scaled through strategic acquisitions, notably West Suburban Bancorp and Evergreen Bank Group. The bank boasts an elite net interest margin (NIM) of 5.14% driven by a high-yielding loan book and a robust, low-cost core deposit base. While rising credit costs and commercial real estate (CRE) exposures present near-term headwinds, OSBC's strong capital position, disciplined operating efficiency (52.40% efficiency ratio), and active share buyback program support a compelling risk-reward profile with attractive valuation multiples relative to regional peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$27.50 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.00 Deterioration in the Chicago commercial real estate market leads to significant defaults, particularly in downtown office exposures, forcing substantial credit provisions. NIM compresses below 4.80% due to intense deposit competition and rising funding costs, while integration issues at Evergreen Bank Group slow loan growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $27.50 Matches the consensus meanOSBC maintains a stable NIM above 5.00% and achieves mid-single-digit loan growth. Credit provisions remain elevated but manageable as CRE and powersport charge-offs stabilize. The bank continues to execute on its efficiency initiatives, keeping the efficiency ratio near 52.40%, and steadily returns capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.00 The integration of Evergreen Bank Group exceeds expectations, driving rapid expansion in the high-yielding national powersport lending niche. NIM remains sustained above 5.15% due to slower-than-expected deposit repricing, while credit costs normalize quickly. Strong capital generation fuels aggressive share repurchases under the authorized program, driving EPS growth above consensus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |