Old Republic International Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $25.06median of 5 methods · middle span $24-$32based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $37.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.1B Enterprise Value $10.2B Shares Outstanding 249.5M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Old Republic presents a balanced investment case. Second-quarter 2026 consolidated premiums and fees grew 5.2%, Title Insurance premiums and fees grew 10.7%, net investment income increased 6.1%, and book value per share reached $25.33. Conversely, quarterly net operating income declined 11.1%, the consolidated combined ratio rose to 95.3%, and Specialty Insurance underwriting income fell 50.5%, including approximately $40 million of unfavorable transactional-risk reserve development. The 45-year regular-dividend growth record and expected earnings accretion from Everett Cash Mutual support the long-term case, but current underwriting and expense pressure warrants a Hold rather than a more favorable recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$39.00 Mean target$43.50 High · most bullish analyst$48.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $39.0024% Adverse reserve development broadens beyond the run-off transactional-risk business, startup and technology costs keep the expense ratio elevated, and Specialty Insurance remains above its full-cycle combined-ratio target. Continued year-over-year operating-income declines would outweigh Title Insurance and investment-income growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $43.5053% Matches the consensus meanPremium growth, investment income, Title Insurance improvement, and dividend growth broadly offset weaker Specialty Insurance underwriting and lower reserve benefits. Bull CaseUpside scenario $48.0023% Title Insurance sustains double-digit premium growth and improves operating leverage, Specialty Insurance returns within its 90%-95% full-cycle combined-ratio target, and Everett Cash Mutual contributes the earnings accretion management expects. Continued investment-income growth and regular-dividend growth would add further support. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |