Okta Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $81.53median of 6 methods · middle span $69-$127based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $212.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 62% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-62%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $37.2B Enterprise Value $36.4B Shares Outstanding 176.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date25 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Okta's Q2 FY2027 results show durable identity-security demand and materially improved profitability: revenue grew 11%, cRPO grew 14%, GAAP operating margin reached 13%, and free cash flow margin reached 28%. The counterweight is a maturing growth profile, with FY2027 revenue guidance of 10%-11% and Q3 cRPO guidance of 11%-12%. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$132.23 High · most bullish analyst$175.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0020% Demand slows below guidance because of macroeconomic pressure, competition, customer-growth weakness, or security-related disruption, while free cash flow margin falls below the Q3 guidance floor. Base CaseCentral scenario $132.2355% Matches the consensus meanRevenue tracks management's 10%-11% FY2027 guidance, Q3 cRPO growth moderates toward 11%-12%, and free cash flow margin remains near the guided 28%-29% full-year range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $175.0025% cRPO growth remains near or above the Q2 rate, adoption of identity governance and AI-agent security broadens, and revenue exceeds the 10%-11% FY2027 outlook while strong cash conversion persists. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |