Oklo Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryElectric Utilities Beta (adjusted)1.13 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $36.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $6.7B Enterprise Value $5.1B Shares Outstanding 180.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Oklo has materially improved its execution evidence: the Groves test reactor reached first criticality less than a year after groundbreaking, Aurora-INL obtained both DOE preliminary-safety approval and NRC approval of its principal design criteria, and Meta is providing commercial support for a planned 1.2 GW Ohio campus. The investment case nevertheless remains highly dependent on completing authorization, converting fuel and customer arrangements into executable contracts, and moving from test-reactor milestones to reliable commercial power operations. The balance of demonstrated progress and still-substantial schedule risk supports a Hold rather than a directional Buy or Sell. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$79.88 High · most bullish analyst$130.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.0024% Aurora-INL moves beyond 2028, the HALEU arrangement is not converted or deliveries slip beyond 2029, and the Ohio first phase moves beyond 2030. Under this outcome, Groves and regulatory milestones fail to translate into timely commercial power generation, causing a substantial reassessment of deployment value. Base CaseCentral scenario $79.8858% Matches the consensus meanAurora-INL continues through authorization and construction with manageable schedule pressure, while the Meta agreement and planned domestic fuel supply preserve long-term deployment potential. Commercial power execution remains unproven, limiting valuation expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $130.0018% Aurora-INL enters commercial operation by early 2028, the Centrus arrangement becomes definitive with 2029 deliveries intact, and the Meta-supported Ohio first phase remains on course for 2030. Groves' rapid path to criticality proves transferable to larger projects, materially lowering perceived execution risk. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |