Oil States International Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Oil States International Inc

OISNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services

Beta (adjusted)1.07

Intrinsic Value $6.56median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $8.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $494M

Enterprise Value $492M

Shares Outstanding 57.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Oil States International (OIS) is successfully transitioning into a technology-focused offshore and international growth story, supported by a robust backlog near decade-highs. However, near-term revenue headwinds persist due to the strategic exit from lower-margin U.S. land service lines and softer sequential volumes. While the balance sheet has been significantly strengthened by the retirement of its convertible senior notes, the stock's high volatility and near-term operational adjustments warrant a neutral stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$11.25

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.0020%

A slowdown in global offshore drilling activity or execution delays in major projects leads to backlog erosion and margin compression, exacerbated by persistent land service revenue declines.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$11.2560%

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the $430 million backlog and gradual margin improvement as lower-margin land services are exited, offset by moderate near-term revenue contraction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$13.5025%

Accelerated deepwater capex and international project awards drive high-margin Offshore Manufactured Products segment growth, while the high-graded domestic business mix delivers stronger-than-expected free cash flow.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong backlog of $430 million, near the highest level in a decade, providing solid revenue visibility.
High-margin Offshore Manufactured Products segment acting as a reliable profit engine with a 20% Adjusted Segment EBITDA margin.
Significantly improved capital structure following the retirement of $52.7 million in convertible senior notes on April 1, 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Near-term revenue contraction driven by the strategic exit from lower-margin U.S. land service lines.
High stock price volatility relative to the broader market.
Dependence on cyclical deepwater and offshore capital expenditure budgets of major operators.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained drop in global oil prices leading to deepwater project deferrals.
Significant backlog cancellations or negative book-to-bill ratios over consecutive quarters.
Failure to achieve projected margin expansion following the exit of U.S. land service lines.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.