Oge Energy Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Oge Energy Corp

OGENYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryElectric Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $35.66median of 6 methods · middle span $35-$41based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $45.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $9.4B

Enterprise Value $14.8B

Shares Outstanding 207.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend6 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

OGE Energy offers a regulated-utility earnings profile supported by reaffirmed 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $2.38-$2.48, a stated 5%-7% annual EPS-growth objective from the 2026 midpoint, and prospective large-load growth. The Google agreements and proposed tariff seek to place connection and generation costs on large-load customers while producing residential-customer credits. Counterweights are weather sensitivity, operating-cost pressure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$44.00

Mean target$50.64

High · most bullish analyst$60.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$44.0020%

Weather, operating expenses, financing costs or regulatory delays cause earnings to fall below the 2026 guidance floor, reduce the longer-term EPS-growth outlook or weaken the expected economics of large-load investment.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$50.6455%

Matches the consensus mean

OGE remains within its $2.38-$2.48 2026 diluted EPS range and advances its 5%-7% annual EPS-growth objective while the large-load tariff proceeds through regulatory review.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$60.0025%

OGE finishes 2026 near the upper end of guidance, sustains EPS growth in the top half of its 5%-7% objective and secures timely approval of a large-load tariff that supports data-center demand without shifting connection costs to existing customers.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 diluted EPS increased to $0.56 from $0.53, and full-year guidance remained $2.38-$2.48.
Management targets 5%-7% annual consolidated EPS growth from the 2026 guidance midpoint and the top half of that range through 2028.
The Google agreements require the customer to fund 100% of grid-connection costs and its contracted generation costs, while the proposed large-load tariff includes additional customer protections.
The board maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.425 per common share in May 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Earnings are weather-sensitive; mild weather contributed to weaker first-quarter 2026 utility earnings.
Higher operation and maintenance expense partially offset the benefit of capital-investment recovery and lower interest expense in the second quarter.
The proposed large-load tariff and Google service arrangements require regulatory approval, creating timing and execution risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.